I have no idea whether you are right, wrong, or at some point in between the two extremes.
However, to me, your analysis, (if it is worthy of the term), seems far too simplistic.
I hope that I have it completely wrong and that Ukraine puts an end to this war, on its terms, very quickly.
I consider that a vain hope.
I expect much worse that we have seen already.
I expect much more suffering.
I expect much more affecting people thousands of miles away, many of whom have never heard of Ukraine and who are already and have for years been suffering and to whom the World's nations have payed little more than lip service.
Frankly, as much as I feel for Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians who are caught up in a war that none of them want, caused purely to satisfy the insanity of one man, it bothers me enormously that the World is willing to pay so much attention to this tragedy yet has failed to right so many others that have lasted for decades or even longer.
It is sad that we engage so readily with the 'glamorous' or ' sensational' but not with mundane poverty, starvation, dispossession, disease, etc.
So, you may be right or you may be wrong. I may be naive or a fool.
What does seem to me to be clear - obvious - indisputable - is that humanity is its own worst enemy and has learned nothing of significance since its distant ancestors crawled out of the sea.